...These are the little bits that are lost and ignored when calculating value and watching the markets. If you really are serious about your vintage collections and your potential return, then you should see the big picture. There's more to this than what has been discussed in this thread.
Great post. I totally agree. I constantly follow prices, since I do this for a living, and am always making decisions about what to buy and sell.
When the housing/stock markets crashed in '08, drum prices were a bit slow to react. In my experience, they started to fall across the board around Feb of '09, and were at their worst between March and August of '09. When September hit, there was a sort of sling-shot effect, prices and sales jumped way up. Since then it's leveled off, with the normal lows and highs that have always happened. Extremely desirable, high-end items were for the most part recession proof.
This particular jazz-fest is an anomaly, and occurs now and then in any market. If the selling price was the new going rate, then any of us could buy one today for $2000, expecting it to sell for $3000. But in reality, I wouldn't pay more than $800 for one, because I think it would be very hard to sell for more than $1200. Trends are indeed very important. As always happens, there are those that will consider $3K to be the new going rate for a blue oyster jazz fest, and they'll come out of the woodwork with buy it now prices of $3000+, but none will sell!
-Bill