I'm in my early 30's and I have recently got an interest in vintage drums. The only "kinda" vintage kit is my Ludwig Rockers with classic lugs. One of the main reasons I wanted this kit was that it was a USA made kit. I can't afford any modern USA made kits and found this Rocker set for $200. I think "vintage" will always have the cool factor and there will always be collectors. But like with baseball cards...what is collectible has changed and will continue to.
I don't think they'll really change honestly. In my roughly 20 years of playing, vintage drums have to me only gotten more desirable. But what has been vintage has stayed the same. I've seen the tide change with baseball cards and other collectible items such as Cd's,etc... But the drums haven't really changed. I thought for sure that by the time I reached my 30's that the 1980's drums would somehow fall into the same " Vintage " field, but they haven't, and I don't think they will. I think again a lot has to do with the amount of drums being made today and the ease at which high end kits can be found. Most are made over seas and the market is flooded. It's not the same with the classic US made drums, and never really was. I think too that drummers / musicians in general are a different breed of collector. We truly cherish and value these items, and play them. How many people take out and touch their " gem " items if they collect? No one really aside musicians. We aren't the glass case,plastic slip on,cardboard backing, look but don't touch no UV light kinda guys,lol. We're the " where is the sticks I gotta play it " type.
I guess my main point would be this. A cd,baseball card,etc.. gains or loses value based on the people involved. A top athlete comes out and rocks the world, everyone wants his rookie card. They find out he did drugs, no one cares about him anymore. A band puts out a 100 copies of their album, everyone wants one. Then they sign and make a few million, well now people want the music, forget the cd I'll go to Itunes. But as drummers we don't have the same things happen that effect our market. Nothing Ringo ever did or can do will make people not want Ludwig drums. And there isn't any alternative for a vintage drum. You have one, or you don't.